Securities Times reported that with the successive introduction of relevant plans for the "14th Five-Year Plan" of various provincial administrative regions, the development goals of new energy in various regions have also surfaced. According to incomplete statistics, among the more than 20 provincial plans that have been released so far, the newly installed wind power and photovoltaic capacity during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period will exceed 500GW, and localities are also actively building new energy industry clusters.
At the same time, the production capacity of the manufacturing side is also expanding. Taking photovoltaics as an example, last year, the output of the four manufacturing links of silicon material, silicon wafer, battery and module increased by 28.8%~46.9%. There are many new players in Daojun; towers and blades in the wind power industry also show similar signs of expansion.
According to estimates, in order to support carbon peaking before 2030, the proportion of non-fossil energy increments in energy consumption increments during the 14th Five-Year Plan and the 15th Five-Year Plan period will increase from 44% during the 13th Five-Year Plan period. To achieve carbon neutrality in 2060, the proportion of non-fossil energy consumption will reach more than 80% in 2060, and the installed capacity of wind power and photovoltaic power generation is expected to reach about 5 billion kilowatts.
Wind power photovoltaic production capacity is frequently increased
Not long ago, JA Solar disclosed an announcement on the investment and construction of the company's integrated production capacity, involving the 2.5GW crystal pulling and slicing project in Vietnam, the 1.3GW high-efficiency battery project in Ningjin, the 10GW module and auxiliary material supporting project in Yiwu, and the 200MW photovoltaic energy storage project in Tuquan. power generation project. This is the company's third integrated capacity expansion announcement since August 2020.
In response to the latest expansion plan, JA Solar said that after the new silicon wafer and battery projects are put into production, it can effectively increase the production capacity of high-efficiency products, meet the market demand for high-efficiency products, and continuously increase market share and integrated profitability; , After the auxiliary material project is put into production, it can meet part of the demand, which is conducive to ensuring the stable supply of the company's raw materials.
Last year, JA Solar ranked second in global module shipments, and the company's expansion plan is only a microcosm of the entire industry. In January, Risen Energy disclosed a fixed increase plan of 5 billion yuan. The fundraising projects include 5GW N-type ultra-low carbon high-efficiency heterojunction cells and 1GW high-efficiency solar module projects.
"Currently, a number of new entrants have emerged in the wave of photovoltaic production expansion, and at the same time, existing enterprises are also strengthening the layout of vertically integrated production capacity." An unnamed photovoltaic industry expert was interviewed by a reporter from Securities Times·e Company Talk about two characteristics of industry expansion.
According to the reporter's incomplete statistics, in terms of cross-border layout, silicon materials can be described as sweet. Baofeng Energy has planned a production capacity of 600,000 tons. Qinghai Lihao and Hesheng Silicon have planned a production capacity of 200,000 tons. Jiangsu Runyang and Xinjiang Jingnuo also planned A production capacity of 100,000 tons is planned; new entrants to the silicon wafer track such as Shuangliang Energy Saving and Beijing Express have long been well known by the capital market.
In terms of vertical integration layout, Jiangsu Runyang has entered the silicon material market, Tongwei has entered the field of silicon wafers, and others such as LONGi, Jinko, Trina, and JA Solar are expanding their battery production capacity. It is worth mentioning that in the context of the expansion of battery production capacity by integrated manufacturers, in 2021, although the shipments of the top five professional battery manufacturers have increased, the growth rate has dropped from 81% in the previous year to 36%.
Meichang Co., Ltd. is mainly engaged in electroplating diamond wire, which is the main consumable in the silicon wafer cutting process. It has also expanded its production recently. Zhou Xiang, secretary of the company's board of directors, told reporters that the company plans to carry out the 12-line machine efficiency improvement project and the Fulong expansion project at the same time, and it is expected that the annualized production capacity will reach 120 million kilometers by the end of this year. increase".
According to the data provided by the China Photovoltaic Industry Association, in 2021, the domestic polysilicon output will be 505,000 tons, the silicon wafer output will be 227GW, the cell output will be 198GW, and the module output will be 182GW, up 28.8%, 40.7%, 46.9%, and 46.1% year-on-year, respectively. The link output value exceeds 750 billion yuan. This set of data reflects the more intuitive results of production expansion.
Talking about the production capacity layout, the relevant person in charge of LONGi told reporters that the company's monocrystalline silicon headquarters is located in Xi'an, covering Shaanxi, Ningxia, Yunnan, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Malaysia, Vietnam and other production layouts. Ningxia and Malaysia are the whole industry chain of pulling rods, slices, batteries and modules; Yunnan mainly includes pulling rods, slices and batteries. The Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions are mainly for battery and module production capacity, and the Vietnam base is for modules. "For LONGi's business goals, the silicon wafer industry hopes to maintain a 45% market share, and the component sector hopes to achieve a 30% market share."
However, the expansion also has the potential to create imbalances in the supply chain. The above-mentioned industry experts told reporters that the mismatch in the expansion cycle of each link of the photovoltaic manufacturing side is one of the reasons for the imbalance of the supply chain. For example, the expansion cycle of silicon wafers, cells and modules is short, but the expansion cycle of polysilicon and photovoltaic glass is long. Then there is the mismatch in the production capacity of each link of the supply chain. "Compared with expanding production, the issue of coordinated development of the supply chain deserves more attention."
Take polysilicon, which has had more prominent supply and demand problems in the past two years, as an example. Last year, China's polysilicon production capacity (not counting trial production) reached 520,000 tons, while the global polysilicon production capacity will rapidly increase to 1 million tons to 1.2 million tons in 2022. Ma Haitian, executive deputy secretary general of the Silicon Industry Branch of China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, told reporters that the high profit of polysilicon is temporary, and by the end of 2022, the price of polysilicon will fall back to a relatively reasonable level. "China's crystalline silicon photovoltaic industry, as the world's leading industry, is also accumulated by huge sunk capital. The difficulties encountered in the future industrial development will be greater than imagined."
"In the context of the carbon neutrality goal, the entire industry must look at the safety of the photovoltaic capacity structure from a development perspective. From the perspective of the enterprise itself, it is necessary to make strategic planning with a long-term perspective, and to accurately grasp the development of the industry. The trend and rhythm ensure the balance and stability of the production and operation of the enterprise." The above-mentioned person in charge of LONGi told reporters.
The industry-wide expansion also occurs in the wind power industry. Tianshun Wind Energy plans to build four new tower plants, located in Puyang, Henan, Tongliao, Inner Mongolia, Beihai, Guangxi, and Jingmen, Hubei. It is expected to achieve a tower production capacity of 1.2 million tons by the end of 2023. /year. In terms of offshore engineering equipment, the German and Sheyang offshore engineering bases are making steady progress, and it is expected to form a 600,000-ton/year offshore engineering capacity by the end of 2022.
Hydrogen energy storage is popular in the market
According to the forecast of Bloomberg New Energy Finance, the number of markets that increase energy storage requirements in photovoltaic bidding will increase by more than 5 this year; the total scale of global photovoltaic storage power station projects will double this year; at the same time, in at least 4 markets, new households will be added. More than half of the photovoltaic systems will be equipped with energy storage.
Recently, two major power grid companies announced their plans in the field of energy storage. State Grid strives to increase the installed capacity of pumped storage power stations in the company's operating area from the current 26.3 million kilowatts to 100 million kilowatts, and electrochemical energy storage from 3 million kilowatts to 100 million kilowatts. 100 million kilowatts. China Southern Power Grid stated that during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, the company will promote the construction of pumped storage power stations in an orderly manner, and explore and promote the construction and operation of new energy storage power stations. Ten thousand kilowatts.
Since last year, many provinces have issued policies requiring newly developed wind and solar projects to allocate a certain proportion of energy storage, but from the feedback from all parties, the enthusiasm is not high. "There is still controversy about the mandatory requirements for the allocation of energy storage. Specifically, the investment cost recovery mechanism of energy storage has not been perfected. At this stage, the investment cost has only increased, and no effective income has been formed." The above-mentioned industry experts told reporters.
Taking the situation of a steel enterprise obtained by the reporter as an example, its photovoltaic on-grid electricity price at noon is about 0.39 yuan/kWh lower than the peak electricity price from 17:00 to 22:00, which is not enough to support the use of 0.5 yuan/kWh of energy storage battery shift peak-to-valley function , if there are no other subsidies, it will not be enough to motivate the distributed photovoltaics to automatically configure energy storage for peak shifting and 100% self-use of photovoltaic power generation.
Recently, the National Development and Reform Commission and the Energy Administration issued the "14th Five-Year Plan for New Energy Storage Development Implementation Plan", which proposed that by 2025, new energy storage will enter the stage of large-scale development from the initial stage of commercialization and have large-scale commercial applications. Conditions; by 2030, new energy storage will be fully market-oriented.
The above-mentioned industry experts told reporters that a series of policies have clarified the independent market main body of new energy storage; the next step is to improve the new energy storage price mechanism and the "new energy + energy storage" project incentive mechanism.
Hydrogen energy is also popular. Several A-share listed companies have announced that they have hydrogen fuel cell business or subsidiaries engaged in the hydrogen energy industry. In addition, at the end of January, the "2022 Energy Industry Standard Plan Project Establishment Guide" issued by the National Energy Administration showed that hydrogen energy was listed as the key direction for the 2022 energy industry standard plan project establishment.
The relevant person in charge of Guanghui Energy told reporters that Xinjiang, as one of the five major energy comprehensive bases in my country, is rich in natural resources such as coal, oil and gas, wind and light, and has natural advantages in hydrogen production. There has been a sharp decline, and the advantages of pure electric vehicles are not there, so Xinjiang has the conditions to develop hydrogen energy and hydrogen energy vehicles. Based on this consideration, the company has formulated the Outline of the Strategic Plan for the Development of the Hydrogen Energy Industry Chain (2022-2030).
The person in charge said that Guanghui Energy's hydrogen energy industry chain planning will make full use of the characteristics of hydrogen energy with both energy and energy storage attributes, combined with the carbon reduction needs of energy-using enterprises in the Naomao Lake area, and use the existing chemical system. Based on hydrogen (grey hydrogen), the new energy (wind zone photovoltaic) power generation - electrolysis of water for hydrogen production (green hydrogen) is used as a breakthrough to cultivate and drive the rapid development of hydrogen production, hydrogen transmission, hydrogen storage, hydrogen use and related businesses. developing.
In addition, Yue Hydropower recently announced that it signed a "Strategic Cooperation Framework Agreement" with the Wuhai Municipal Government of Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region and Jiangsu Xingbang Energy Technology Co., Ltd., with a total project investment of 16.8 billion to 18.8 billion yuan for the hydrogen energy industry chain. The project plans to set up an international academician future zero-carbon hydrogen energy science and technology innovation center, build two carbon-neutral hydrogen power industrial parks, and create three upstream, midstream and downstream industrial clusters.
Last year, LONGi established a hydrogen energy subsidiary. At that time, Li Zhenguo, president of LONGi Co., Ltd., told a reporter from Securities Times · e company that the company began to pay attention to and deploy renewable energy electrolysis hydrogen production as early as 2018, and formed technical accumulation in the fields of electrolysis hydrogen production equipment and photovoltaic hydrogen production. The layout of hydrogen energy industrialization will be carried out.
The above-mentioned person in charge of LONGi told reporters that at present, LONGi Hydrogen Energy focuses on large-scale alkaline water electrolysis hydrogen production equipment and is committed to achieving the lowest green hydrogen LCOH. Its products have the advantages of high performance, modularization, intelligence and high quality; at the same time, Deploy green electricity to produce green hydrogen solutions to promote the progress of hydrogen energy technology. "We believe that photovoltaic + energy storage is the ultimate energy source for mankind in the future, and there will be huge room for development in the fields of green hydrogen equipment, green hydrogen production and application."
The person in charge told reporters that in the current development process of green hydrogen, it is recommended to pay attention to the following issues. First, the industry should define the standard of "green hydrogen" and clarify the "green hydrogen" during the "14th Five-Year Plan" and "15th Five-Year Plan" period. Propose the development path of "green hydrogen" industry, improve the role and value of "green hydrogen" in industrial decarbonization, and encourage the use of renewable energy water electrolysis to produce hydrogen.
The second is to incorporate green hydrogen management into the energy management system, formulate green hydrogen price policies, give green hydrogen appropriate subsidies and incentives, continue to deepen and improve the carbon trading market, and explore carbon tax policies; In areas where hydrogen is consumed, a national-level large-scale green hydrogen "leader" demonstration base will be established, to encourage the promotion of advanced product technologies, and to open up the industrial chain to realize the integration of "production, storage, transportation and utilization".
The formation of industrial clusters is accelerating
On February 22, the "14th Five-Year Plan" Modern Energy System and Carbon Neutralization Plan for Carbon Peaking in Henan Province was issued. The document proposes that by 2025, the grid-connected capacity of wind and light in the province will be increased by more than 10 million kilowatts. At present, more than 20 provincial-level administrative regions have released relevant plans for the "14th Five-Year Plan", involving about 528GW of new wind and solar installed capacity during the "14th Five-Year Plan".
Recently, Zhejiang Province issued the "Implementation Opinions on Completely, Accurately and Comprehensively Implementing the New Development Concept and Doing a Good Job in Carbon Peaking and Carbon Neutralization", which proposed to implement the "scenery multiplication" project and promote the "photovoltaic + agriculture, fishery and forestry" development model, Promote the construction of photovoltaics in the entire county, build several million kilowatt-class offshore wind power bases, and coordinate the development of the entire chain of hydrogen energy production, storage, transmission and utilization.
The "14th Five-Year" Energy Development Plan of Gansu Province requires that by 2025, the sustainable development capacity of the clean energy base in the Hexi Corridor represented by new energy will be comprehensively improved, and important progress has been made in the construction of the Longdong comprehensive energy base. The new power system of the main body is basically established, forming a development pattern of large-scale power transmission.
Gansu Province plans to reach 32.03GW of photovoltaic power generation capacity by 2025, an average annual increase of 33.97% compared with 9.66GW at the end of 2020; the wind power scale will reach 24.8GW in 2025, an average annual increase of 22.92% compared to 13.73GW in 2020.
As far as local new energy construction is concerned, the current attention is paid to large base projects. Among them, the first batch of large base projects involved Inner Mongolia, Qinghai, Gansu, Shaanxi, Ningxia, Xinjiang, Liaoning, Jilin, Heilongjiang, Hebei, Shanxi, Shandong, Sichuan, Yunnan, Guizhou, Guangxi, Anhui, Hunan and other 19 provinces and autonomous regions. The total scale is 97.05GW.
According to the notice from the National Energy Administration, like the first batch of large bases, the second batch of large bases mainly consider desert, Gobi, and desert areas, but considering that these areas have limited power consumption capacity, they will be partially consumed and passed through UHV Transmission channel for delivery.
"At present, the large-scale base projects are being implemented in an orderly manner." The above-mentioned experts told reporters that the first batch of large-scale bases will work for a long time in accordance with the principle of "one mature and one started". ”; The second batch of large bases proposed that they should meet the “four elements”, including not involving ecological red lines, relying on existing power transmission channels, supporting coal-fired power flexibility transformation and various peak shaving measures.
In addition, listed companies also set their sights on opportunities such as local distributed photovoltaic development and county-wide promotion. For example, TBEA, Hongdong County Government and Huaxiang Co., Ltd. plan to develop and construct a 1GW photovoltaic power generation project and supporting photovoltaic support project in Hongdong County. For cooperation, the total investment of the project is 4.3 billion yuan; Jinko Technology plans to invest about 20 billion yuan in the construction of photovoltaic power generation projects in Shangrao City within 5 years, and will focus on promoting the rooftop distributed photovoltaic construction in various development zones in Shangrao City to improve the development of various development zones. Energy self-supply capability.
The characteristics of the cluster development of photovoltaic manufacturing projects are gradually emerging. Recently, major projects in Wuhai, Inner Mongolia have been signed. Among them, the new energy field involves a total investment of 49.09 billion yuan, including the hydrogen energy industry integration project invested and constructed by Jiangsu Xingbang Energy Technology Co., Ltd.; the photovoltaic whole industry chain project invested and constructed by Dongfang Hope Group; Inner Mongolia Dongyuan Technology Co., Ltd. invested and constructed The 10GW monocrystalline cell module project, etc., will help Wuhai to build a new energy industrial base integrating wind-solar hydrogen storage and utilization.
For another example, Daqo Energy, Xinte Energy and other companies have set their sights on Baotou, Inner Mongolia, and the planned investment projects involve upstream and downstream industrial chains such as industrial silicon and polysilicon; Tongwei Co., Ltd., Jingyuntong, etc. have business layouts in Wutongqiao District, Leshan City, forming The industrial chain of silicon material, pulling rod and slicing has been established.